DDHA 8800 Time Series in Health Care Essay

Part 1

Time Series in Health Care

Pam is a healthcare administration leader for a large network of hospitals and health service centers that is attempting to predict future healthcare utilization at their centers over the next 5 years. She obtains data regarding patient use across the hospital network and health service centers and projects forward over the next 5 years to determine which areas might experience continued growth. After applying her time series model, she is able to demonstrate that, indeed, the hospital network and health service centers will experience significant growth. As she prepares to share her results and findings with the board, she also considers advocating for the development of a new regional health service center to fill one of the areas that will experience the most growth according to her forecast projections.

As a current or future healthcare administration leader, you may be asked to assess strategic planning and decision-making using time series analysis.

For this Discussion, reflect on time series models and forecasting. Think about how you might implement these methods for healthcare administration practice.

Post a description of some variables that you might evaluate using time series in your health services organization or one with which you are familiar. Then, explain what types of models might be most appropriate to measure, and analyze these variables. Be specific and provide examples.

Part 2

Time Series Analysis for Blayer Pharm

Blayer Pharm sells two types of blood pressure cuffs at more than 50 locations in the Midwest. The first style is a relatively expensive model, whereas the second is a standard, less expensive model. Although weekly demand for these two products is fairly stable from week to week, there is enough variation to concern management. There have been relatively unsophisticated attempts to forecast weekly demand but they haven’t been very successful. Sometimes demand (and the corresponding sales) is lower than forecasts, so inventory costs are high. Other times, the forecasts are too low. When this happens, and on-hand inventory is not sufficient to meet customer demand, Blayer requires expedited shipments to keep customers happy—and this nearly wipes out Blayer’s profit margin on the expedited units. Profits would almost certainly increase if demand could be forecast more accurately. Data on weekly sales of both products appear in the file for this week. A time series chart of the two sales variables indicates what Blayer management expected—namely, there is no evidence of any upward or downward trends or of any seasonality. In fact, it might appear that each series is an unpredictable sequence of random ups and downs.

For this Assignment, reflect on the scenario presented. Review the resources for this week and consider how you might apply time series analyses to address the case questions.

Note: For this Assignment, you will be using SPSS.

The Assignment: (3–5 page)

Use the dataset to answer the following questions. Provide complete analysis and graphs, as appropriate.

It is possible to forecast either series with some degree of accuracy or with an extrapolation method (where only past values of that series are used to forecast current and future values).
1. Perform an analysis with at least two different methods. Show your forecast results in table form (include your SPSS output tables).
2. Which method appears to be best? In narrative form, defend your choice of best method. Include a description of the level of accuracy of the chosen method.

Is it possible, when trying to forecast sales of one of your blood pressure cuff products, to somehow incorporate current or past sales of the other blood pressure cuff product in the forecast model? Why or why not? Explain your reasoning and how you would go about doing this.

Are these products “substitute” products or are they “complementary” products? Why? Conduct appropriate analyses to support your argument and include tabular results (i.e., your SPSS output).

Submit your answers and embedded SPSS analysis as a Microsoft Word management report.

Week	BP Cuff Type 1	BP Cuff Type 2
1	455	832
2	490	798
3	425	890
4	466	855
5	456	848
6	454	871
7	476	838
8	465	826
9	481	853
10	463	870
11	483	849
12	440	888
13	445	859
14	452	894
15	447	873
16	440	888
17	459	863
18	460	885
19	424	912
20	447	913
21	397	878
22	386	916
23	366	888
24	357	931
25	367	888
26	372	883
27	336	871
28	327	873
29	328	891
30	354	826
31	352	830
32	394	822
33	378	820
34	410	850
35	441	854
36	422	835
37	436	835
38	424	883
39	461	826
40	474	842
41	484	856
42	498	842
43	526	808
44	517	875
45	504	901
46	503	915
47	483	858
48	497	899
49	475	921
50	493	849
51	506	869
52	513	902
53	506	908
54	486	872
55	498	930
56	487	844
57	453	899
58	503	880
59	491	908
60	455	898
61	501	893
62	501	863
63	450	907
64	455	877
65	495	847
66	452	901
67	493	858
68	494	860
69	477	823
70	510	795

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Discussion Questions (DQ)

Initial responses to the DQ should address all components of the questions asked, including a minimum of one scholarly source, and be at least 250 words. Successful responses are substantive (i.e., add something new to the discussion, engage others in the discussion, well-developed idea) and include at least one scholarly source. One or two-sentence responses, simple statements of agreement or “good post,” and responses that are off-topic will not count as substantive. Substantive responses should be at least 150 words. I encourage you to incorporate the readings from the week (as applicable) into your responses.

Weekly Participation

Your initial responses to the mandatory DQ do not count toward participation and are graded separately. In addition to the DQ responses, you must post at least one reply to peers (or me) on three separate days, for a total of three replies. Participation posts do not require a scholarly source/citation (unless you cite someone else’s work). Part of your weekly participation includes viewing the weekly announcement and attesting to watching it in the comments. These announcements are made to ensure you understand everything that is due during the week.

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Familiarize yourself with the APA format and practice using it correctly. It is used for most writing assignments for your degree. Visit the Writing Center in the Student Success Center, under the Resources tab in Loud-cloud for APA paper templates, citation examples, tips, etc. Points will be deducted for poor use of APA format or absence of APA format (if required). Cite all sources of information! When in doubt, cite the source. Paraphrasing also requires a citation. I highly recommend using the APA Publication Manual, 6th edition.

Use of Direct Quotes

I discourage over-utilization of direct quotes in DQs and assignments at the Master’s level and deduct points accordingly. As Masters’ level students, it is important that you be able to critically analyze and interpret information from journal articles and other resources. Simply restating someone else’s words does not demonstrate an understanding of the content or critical analysis of the content. It is best to paraphrase content and cite your source.

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Late Policy

The university’s policy on late assignments is a 10% penalty PER DAY LATE. This also applies to late DQ replies. Please communicate with me if you anticipate having to submit an assignment late. I am happy to be flexible, with advance notice. We may be able to work out an extension based on extenuating circumstances. If you do not communicate with me before submitting an assignment late, the GCU late policy will be in effect. I do not accept assignments that are two or more weeks late unless we have worked out an extension. As per policy, no assignments are accepted after the last day of class. Any assignment submitted after midnight on the last day of class will not be accepted for grading.

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DDHA 8800 Time Series in Health Care Essay